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Forex – Easy Investment and Safe Trading System

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Safe Trade Pro Review – Safe and Simple Forex Trading System?

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Safe Trade Pro Review – Safe and Simple Forex Trading System?

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Forex – Easy Investment and Safe Trading System

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Forex – Easy Investment and Safe Trading System

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Forex – Easy Investment and Safe Trading System

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Safe Trade Pro Review – Safe and Simple Forex Trading System?

Safe Trade Pro Review – Safe and Simple Forex Trading System? submitted by Leka213 to CryptocurrencyToday [link] [comments]

Safe Trade Pro Review – Safe and Simple Forex Trading System?

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Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

IS ____ AN MLM? SEARCH HERE. (MEGA THREAD)

For a quick, easier search - http://www.isthisanmlm.com/ has compiled this whole thread. Special thanks to u/SHIFTnSPACE. - This is now a part of the sidebar as a button widget!

What is an MLM?

Multi-level marketing (MLM), also called pyramid selling, network marketing, and referral marketing, is a marketing strategy for the sale of products or services where the revenue of the MLM company is derived from a non-salaried workforce selling the company's products/services, while the earnings of the participants are derived from a pyramid-shaped or binary compensation commission system. ​
THIS LIST MAY CONTAIN COMPANIES THAT HAVE PREVIOUSLY HAD MLM BRANCH BUT MAY NO LONGER HAVE ONE.
If you see a company and are not sure that it belongs on this list, please reach out. I have compiled this list from the sources listed at the bottom along with input from community members. This list may not be 100% accurate but the goal is to get it as close as possible.
31 - Bags
5Linx - Home & Business Services
Abby & Anna - Clothing
ACAN Pacific - Utilities
ACN - Utilities
ActiLabs - Skincare/Health
Adornable.U - Accessories
Advocare - Dietary Supplements
AeroGrow - Garden Tools
Agnes & Dora - Clothing
AIM Global - Nutritional Supplements
Akasuka (Japan) -
Alcone - Beauty
Alice's Table - Flower Arrangement Classes
All'asta - Home Goods
Allysian Sciences -
Aloe Vera of America (Young Living) - Nutritional Supplements
Aloette - Beauty
Alphay Int - Nutritional Supplements
AlureVe - Skincare/Health
Amare Global - Nutritional Supplements
Ambit - Utilities
Amelia James -
Ameo - Essential Oils
American Income Life - Financial
Amsoil - Motor Oil
Amway - Health/Beauty/Home Goods
Ann Summers - Product
Ann Summers (UK) - Adult Novelties
Anorak (UK) - Home Goods
Anran (China) -
Apollo (India) - Juice
Apriori - Skincare/Health
AquaSource UK - Nutritional Supplements
Arbonne - Skincare/Health
ARIIX - Water Purification
Arsoa Honsha (Japan) - Fitness/Weight Loss
Asea Global - Nutritional Supplements
Asirvia (shut down) - Marketing
Aspire/Digital Altitude - Marketing
ATC Coin - Crypto Currency
Athena's - Adult Novelties
Atomy - Skincare/Health
Ava Anderson -
Ava Rose - Clot
Avisae - Weight Loss
Avon - Beauty
b:hip Global - Health
Bachar Nutrition - Nutritional Supplements
Bamboo Pink - Jewelry
Barefoot Books - Books
Bath.Ologie - Bath Bombs
Beach Body - Fitness/Weight Loss Videos
BearCereju (Japan) - Cosmetics
BeautiControl -
Beauty Counter - Cosmetics
Beauty Society - Beauty
beCAUSE Cosmetics - Cosmetics
Become International (US & AUS) - Cosmetics
Bedroom Kandi - Adult Novelties
Beever (UK) - Hair Care
BelCorp (Latin America) - Cosmetics
Bellame - Skincare/Health
Bemer - Appliances
Better Way Design/Imports - Clothing
Biogreen Argentina -
BioPerformance - Automotive (Fuel Pills)
Bod-e Pro - Nutritional Supplements
Body by Vi/Visalus - Health
Body Shop at Home - Beauty
Boisset Collection - Wine
Boston Finney (shut down) -
Bounce Life/Network - Insurance
Bud Star (Canada) - CBD/THC Products
BurnLounge (shut down as pyramid scheme by FTC in 2012) -
Buskins - Clothing
Butterfly Beauty - Cosmetics
Cabi - Clothing
Cambridge Weight Plan/Diet - Dietary Supplements
CAN - Utilities
Captain Tortue - Clothing
Carico Int - Home Goods
Celebrating Home - Home Goods
Cellements - Skincare/Health
CEO Movement (Not MLM but scammy) -
Chalk Couture - Chalkboard Signs
Chalky & Co - Home Goods
Chandeal (Japan) - Clothing
Charle (Japan) - Clothing
Charlie's Project - Clothing
Chef's Toolbox (AUS) (Insolvency) - Kitchen Accessories
Cherish Natural Products -
Chloe & Isabel - Jewelry
Clever Container - Home Goods
Close to My Heart - Scrapbooking
Cloud 9 Parties - Adult Novelties
Cobra Group/Appco -
Cocoa Exchange - Food
Color by Amber - Jewelry
Color Happy -
Color Street - Nail Wraps
Colour Me Beautiful (UK) - Clothing
Compelling Creations - Jewelry
Conklin - Roofing
Cookie Lee (shut down) -
Cosway (Malaysia) - Health/Beauty/Home Goods
Country Scents - Product/Candles
Create Your Life - Health
Creative Memories - Scrapbooking
Credit Repair USA - Financial
Crunchi - Cosmetics
Cutco - Knives
CVSL - Multiple Companies
Daisy Blue Naturals - Personal Care
Damsel in Defense - Product/Self Defense
Darceys - Candles
David Lerner Associates, INC - Financial
Dazzle and Daze - Clothing
Deutsche vermögensberatung/Dvag (Germany) - Financial
Diana (Japan) -
Dione Cosmetics - Cosmetics
Direct Cellars/DC Nation - Wine
Discovery Toys - Educational Toys
Divvee/Nui -
Dot Dot Smile - Clothing
DoTERRA - Health/Oils
Du Northing Designs - Clothing
Dubli Network - Financial
Dudley Beauty - Cosmetics
DXN - Health/Beauty/Home Goods
Dynamic Essentials -
EcoWarehouse - Home Goods
Elepreneuer -
Elk River Soaps - Personal Care
Ella Tina - Clothing
Elli Kai - Clothing
Elvacity - Nutritional Supplements
EmGoldEx/Global Intergold -
Enagic/Kangen Water - Ionized Water
Endless Xpressions - Clothing/Accessories
Enersource Int - Nutritional Supplements
Enjo (AUS) - Cleaning Producs
Envy Jewelry - Jewelry
Epicure (Canada) - Food
Equinox International (dissolved in 2001) -
Ergo (Germany) - Insurance
Essante Organics -
Essential Bodywear - Clothing
European Grouping of Marketing Professionals/CEDIPAC SA (dissolved 1995) -
European Home Retail (dissolved 2007) -
Evanescence Network - Health
EVER Skincare - Skincare/Health
Evolution Travel - Product
EvolvHealth - Health
Faberlic (Russia) - Health/Beauty/Home Goods
Family First Life - Insurance
Family Heritage Insurance - Insurance
Fantasia - Adult Novelties
Fantasia (Canada) - Adult Novelties
Farmasi -
FES Connect - Financial
Fibi & Clo - Footwear
Fifth Ave Collection - Jewelry
First Fitness Nutrition - Dietary Supplements
Fit4Mom - Clothing
FITTEAM Global - Dietary Supplements
Flamingo Paperie - Art
Fleuresse -
FM World (UK) -
For Tails Only - Pet Supplies
Forever Living - Health/Oils
Forex Education (iMarkets Live branch) - Crypto
Forex Entourage - Financial
Fortune Hi-Tech Marketing (dissolved 2013) -
Four Oceans - Health
Fragant Jewels - Bathbombs
FreeLife - Nutritional Supplements
Frontrow -
Fuel Freedom Int - Automotive
Fund America (Bankrupt 1990) -
Gano Excel - Nutritional Supplements
GelMoment - Beauty
Gemstra - Jewelry
Genesis Pure - Nutritional Supplements
Global Legacy Initiative -
GoDesana - Pet
Gold Canyon - Product/Candles
Golden Days (China) - Health
Grace & Heart - Jewelry
Green HoriZen - CBD
Greeting Cake Company - Cake Kits
H2O At Home - Personal Care
Hale - CBD Oil
Hanky Panky Parties (Canada) - Adult Novelties
Happy Coffee - Coffee
Harvard Risk Management (Legal Shield) -
Hayward's Gourmet Popcorn - Food
HB Naturals - Health
He(L)o - Health
Healthy Peach - Dietary Supplements
Heavenly Chia - Food
Heka Corp - Fitness
Helo Wristbands - Health
HempWorx - Health
Herbalife - Health
Heritage Makers - Scrapbooking
Hinode - Cosmetics
Holiday Magic (shut down) -
Home Interiors - Home Goods
Honey - Beauty
Honey & Lace - Clothing
Hualin Biotech (China) - Health
iCoinPro - Crypto Currency
ID Life - Health
Igniting Passion (Canada) - Adult Novelties
iMarketsLive - Financial Trading Software
Immunotec - Health
Imperial Candles (UK) - Candles
In a Pikle - Bags
Income Advantage -
India Hicks - Product/Accessories
Infinitus - Health
Initials, Inc - Bags
Inkd Up Nails - Beauty
innov8tive nutrition - Nutritional Supplements
InteleTravel - Travel
Intimo (AUS/NZ) - Adult Novelties
Isagenix - Dietary Supplements
ItWorks! - Health
J. Elizabeth - Clothing
J. Hilburn - Clothing
J.R Watkins -
Jafra - Beauty
Jamberry - Beauty
Jamby - Clothing
Jamie at Home (shut down) -
Janice Collection - Home Goods
Java Momma - Coffee
Javita - Coffee
Jbloom - Jewelry
Jequiti - Cosmetics
Jerky Direct -
Jeunesse - Beauty
Jewel Kade (31) - Jewelry
Jewelscent - Product/Candles
JK Apparel (Canada) - Clothing
Jordan Essentials - Beauty
JoyMain (China) - Health
Joyome (Plexus) - Beauty
JuicePlus - Nutritional Supplements
Jump Natural - Health
Kaesar & Blair -
Kalaia - Skincare/Health
Kalo & Co - Pearl/Jewelry
Kangen Water -
Kannaway - CBD Oil
Karat Bars - Gold
Kaszazz - Scrapbooking
Keep Collective - Jewelry
Keep Me Safe - Cos
KETO (Pruvit) -
Keto Coffee - Coffee
Ketones - Health
Kirby - Vacuums
Kleeneze - Home Goods
Kobold (Vorwerk) -
Kyani - Health
Labella Baskets - Home Goods
Lady Godiva Beauty - Cosmetics
Lavylites - Beauty
L'BRI - Beauty
LeadUp Consulting -
Legal Shield - Legal Services
LegArt (Canada) - Leggings
Legend Age (China) -
Legging Army - Clothing
Legging Girl - Clothing
Lemongrass Spa - Beauty
LeReve (Canada) - Cosmetics
Le-Vel (Thrive) - Health
Lia Sophia (dissolved) - Jewelry
Life Abundance - Pet
LIFE Leadership - Financial
Life Tree World - Food
LifeBrook -
LifePlus (US/Germany) - Dietary Supplements
Life's Abundance - Pet Supplies
LifeVantage - Dietary Supplements
Lilla Rose - Jewelry
Limelife - Skincare/Health
Limu - Health
Limu - Nutritional Supplements
Linen World - Home Goods
Lion Crown -
Lipsense - Beauty
Liv International - Travel
Live Sore - Clothing
Longabeger Company - Baskets
Longrich (China) - Beauty
Lorraine Lee Linen - Home Goods
Love Winx - Adult Novelties
LR Beauty & Health - Beauty
LuLaRoe - Clothing
Lulu Ave - Jewelry
Luminess - Cosmetics
Lyconet/Lyoness -
Lyoness - Financial
M. Global (Jamberry) - Jewelry
M. Network - Nutritional Supplements
Maelle Beauty - Beauty
Magnabilities - Jewelry
Magnolia & Vine - Jewelry
Makeup Eraser - Cosmetics
Man Cave - Kitchen Accessories
Mannatech - Dietary Supplements
Mark. - Financial
Market America - Health/Beauty/Home Goods
Marly Ray - Pearl/Jewelry
Marvelous Mouse Travels - Travel
Mary & Martha - Home Goods
MaryKay - Beauty
Maskara - Beauty
Matilda Jane - Clothing
Max & Madeleine - Skincare/Health
Maxwell Clothing - Clothing
MCA - Financial
Medifast - Nutritional Supplements
Melaleuca - Health/Beauty/Home Goods
Metabolife (dissolved in 2005) -
MiA Bath and Body (Closed) -
mialisia - Jewelry
Miche EU - Accessories
Miki (Asia) - Nutritional Supplements
MOA Nutrition - Nutritional Supplements
Modere -
MojiLife - Essential Oils
Monat - Hair Care
MonaVie (went into foreclosure 2015) -
Morinda Bioactives - Personal Care/Dietary Supplements
Motives Cosmetics - Cosmetics
Multpure - Water
My Club 8 - CBD Oil
My Daily Choice - Nutritional Supplements
My LALA Leggings - Clothing
myEcon - Financial
National Safety Associates - Dietary Supplements
National Wealth Center - Education
Natura (Brazil) - Cosmetics
Nature Direct (AUS) - Essential Oils
Nature's Sunshine Products - Dietary Supplements
Neal's Yard Remedies Organic - Beauty
NeoLife - Dietary Supplements
Neora (Nerium) -
Nerium - Skincare/Health
NeVetica - Pet Supplies
New Era (China) - Nutritional Supplements
New U Life - Health
Neways - Personal Care
Nikken -
Noevir - Beauty
Nomades - Jewelry
Noonday Collection - Jewelry
Norwex - Cleaning Producs
Nouveau Riche (real estate investment college) (dissolved 2010 -
Nspire Network - Feminine Products
NuCerity - Skincare/Health
NuSkin - Tooth Paste/Personal Care
Nutriboom -
NXIVM - Financial
Nygard - Clothing
Omnilife - Dietary Supplements
One Hope Wine - Wine
Optavia - Health
Opulenza - Jewelry
Organo Gold - Coffee
Oriflame - Personal Care
Origami Owl - Jewelry
Our Hearts Desire - Jewelry
Paid 2 Save - Travel
Pampered Chef - Kitchen Accessories
Paparazzi - Jewelry
Paperly - Paper
Park Lane Jewelry - Jewelry
Party Girl - Candles
Party Lite - Candles
Party Time Mixes - Food
PartyLite - Candles
Passion Parties - Adult Novelties
Pawtree - Pet
Paycation - Travel
Peach - Clothing
Pearl Chic - Pearl/Jewelry
Peekaboo Beans - Clothing
Perfect (China) - Cosmetics
Perfectly Polished - Beauty
Perfectly Posh - Beauty
Personally Poetic - Jewelry
PHP - Insurance
Pierre Lang - Jewelry
Pink Zebra - Candles
Piphany - Clothing
PixieLane - Clothing
Plexus - Health
Plumeria Bath - Beauty
Plunder - Jewelry
PM International - Health
Pola (Japan) - Skincare/Health
Poofy Organics - Beauty
Powur - Solar Panels
Premier Designs - Jewelry
Premier Financial - Financial
PrimeMyBody - Health
Primerica - Financial
Princess House - Kitchen Accessories
ProDoula -
ProYoung - Health
Pruvit - Health
Pulse Cosmetics - Cosmetics
Pure Haven - Cosmetics
Pure Romance - Product
PureHaven - Home Goods
PUREly - Essential Oils
Purium - Health
Qnet - Nutritional Supplements
Quanjian Natural (China) - Food
RadiantlyYou -
Rain International - Health
Rainbow Vacuum - Vacuums
Real Time Pain Relief - Health
Red Aspen - Beauty
RED Safety - Security
Regal Home and Gifts - Home Goods
Reliv - Health
Reliv - Nutritional Supplements
Renatus Real Estate - Education
RevitalU - Coffee/Health
Riway - Deer Placenta
Robert Kiyosaki -
Rodan+Fields - Beauty
Roland (Vorwerk) -
Rolmex (China) - Kitchen Accessories
Royal Tongan Limu (dissolved in 2003) -
Royaltie Gens - Marketing
Ruby Ribbon - Clothing
Saba - Health/Beauty
Sabika Jewelry - Jewelry
SafeGirl Security - Self Defense
Salad Master - Home Goods
SARSO (India) -
Scentsy - Health/Oils
Schneider's Gourmet World - Food
Scout & Cellar - Wine
Seacret - Beauty
SendOutCards - Gift Cards
Senegence - Skincare/Health
Shakeology (BeachBody) - Dietary Supplements
Shaklee - Dietary Supplements
Shopping Sherlock -
Shrimp & Grits - Clothing
Signature Homestyles - Home Goods
Silpada - Jewelry
Silver Icing - Jewelry
Simple Man - Personal Care
Simply Success Elite -
SimplyFun Games - Education
Skinny Body at Home - Dietary Supplements
SkinSanity/Tomorrow's Leaf - Skincare/Health
Smart Circle -
Smartway -
Solavei (dissolved 2015)[ -
Solvei (bankrupt) -
Sophie Paris (France/Asia) - Clothing
South Hill Designs - Jewelry
Southern Living at Home - Home Goods
SouthWestern Advantage - Education
Sseko - Clothing
Stampin Up - Paper
Steam Energy - Utilities
Steeped Tea - Tea
Stella & Dot - Clothing
Stream Energy - Financial
Style Dots - Jewelry
Success University - Education
Sun Hope (China) -
Sunrider - Health/Beauty/Home Goods
Sunset Gourmet - Food
Sunshine Empire (dissolved 2009) -
Surge 365 - Travel
Sweet Legs - Clothing
Sweet Minerals - Beauty
Symmetry Financial Group - Insurance
Syntek Global - Automotive
T.O.P Marketing Group -
TAG Team Marketing -
Taisei/Green Planet/Kaikisui (Japan_ - Purifiers
Tara at Home - Home Goods
Tastefully Simple - Food
Tavala - Health
Tealightful - Tea
Team National - Financial
TeDivina - Tea
Telecom Plus (UK) - Utilities
Telexfree (bankrupt 2014) -
The Advert Platfrom - Crypto Currency
The Body Shop at Home - Beauty
The Landmark Forum - Health
The Super Affiliate Network - Marketing
Thermomix (Vorwerk) -
Thirty One - Bags
Thrive - Health
Thrive Life - Food
Tiber River Naturals - Beauty
TKO WorldWide -
Tocara (Canada) - Jewelry
Tom James - Clothing
Total Life Changes/TLC - Health
TouchStone Crystal - Jewelry
Touchstone Essentials - Dietary Supplements
Tracy Negoshian - Clothing
Trades of Hope - Jewelry
Tranont - Financial
Transformational Beauty - Cosmetics
Travel Evolution - Travel
Traveling Vineyard - Wine
TraVerus Global - Travel
TriVita - Nutritional Supplements
Tropic Skin Care - Skincare/Health
True Peak Revolution (Europe) -
Truvision Health - Health
TS-Life - Nutritional Supplements
Tupperware - Tupperware
Unicity - Health
United Sciences of America (dissolved in 1987) -
United Warehouse (UK) -
US Health Advisors -
Usana - Nutritional Supplements
Usborne - Books
Utility Warehouse (UK) - Utilities
Valentus - Dietary Supplements
Vantel - Product/Pearls
Vasayo - Health
VectoCutco - Knives
Vemma - Dietary Supplements
viaOneHope - Wine
ViBella - Jewelry
VIC Cosmetics -
Vida Divina - Tea
Vie at Home (closed) -
Virtuity Financial Group (World Financial Group) -
ViSalus (Body by VI) - Dietary Supplements
Vitality Extracts - Essential Oils
VivaMK - Cleaning Producs
Volo - Health
Vorwerk - Home Goods
Votre Belle Maison (UK) - Giftware
Voxxlife - Health
Wakaya Perfection - Health
WakeUpNow (dissolved 2015) -
Watkins Inc - Health/Home Goods
Wealthperx - Travel
Wikaniko - Home Goods
Wildtree - Food
Willing Beauty - Beauty
Winasun - Health
Wine Shop at Home - Wine
Wines for Humanity - Wine
Wink Naturals - Health
World Financial Group/Pinnacle Leadership Development - Financial
World Leadership Group (dissolved in 2008) -
World Ventures/Wealth Wave/TKO WorldWide - Travel
WoTaBu - Travel
XanGo/Ziji - Health
Xerveo - Dietary Supplements
Xoom Energy - Utilities
Xooma - Weight Loss
Xstream Travel - Travel
Xyngular - Health
Yanbal Int - Jewelry
Yandi (China) - Nutritional Supplements
Yelloow - Beauty
Yevo (closed) -
Yofoto (China) - Health
Yoli - Health
Yoonla -
YOR Health - Weight Loss
Young Living - Health
Youngevity -
Younique - Beauty
YTB International - Travel
Zepter -
Zija - Health
Zilis - Health
Zinzino (Scandanavia) -
Zrii - Skincare/Health
Zurvita - Health
Zyia - Clothing
Zyn - Travel
TOTAL COUNT = 594 ​ This list will be continually updated (5/19/2020).
2018 Archived MLM Mega Thread

Sources: https://mlmtruth.org/2018/02/08/the-mlm-master-list/ , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_multi-level_marketing_companies Special thanks to u/Copacetic1515 (I could not stick your thread)

For income disclosure information: Updated 2019 Thread

Other Helpful Links: Discussion about World Financial Group
submitted by antiMLMmod to antiMLM [link] [comments]

5 Best Features of PrimeXBT in 2020

5 Best Features of PrimeXBT in 2020

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PrimeXBT is a cutting-edge trading platform that bridges the gap between the cryptocurrency and traditional asset markets, providing a range of advanced tools and features for the optimization of the way its users trade and invest.
As well as this, PrimeXBT provides a safe and secure environment that is fully compliant with AML and KYC, and that uses advanced bank-grade security features in order to protect the funds of its users.
We're taking a look at the 5 best features of PrimeXBT in 2020, beginning with a look at what PrimeXBT actually is and the growth of PrimeXBT, before looking at the top 5 features that users at the platform enjoy.
What is PrimeXBT?

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PrimeXBT is the world's leading multi-asset margin trading platform and after launching in 2018 with a waiting list of more than 150,000 traders, PrimeXBT has rapidly grown over the past 2 years to today managing up to $2 billion worth of global trade every day.
PrimeXBT's reputation is built around the provision of advanced tools and features that are unique throughout the market and that provide powerful opportunities for traders and investors to reduce the risk and to improve the outcomes of their trading activities.
PrimeXBT lists a wide range of cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, provides industry leading margin trading, and packs some of the most advanced security features used in the market into its platform as well.
The Growth of PrimeXBT
What Distinguishes PrimeXBT from Other Platforms?
While there are many trading platforms that provide margin trading in 2020, PrimeXBT provides a safer and more secure environment for cryptocurrency and traditional asset margin traders.
Unlike many other platforms which have been hacked over the past few years, PrimeXBT has a clean security track record and has never been hacked, protecting its users with advanced features.
As well as this, PrimeXBT is considered to be one of the most innovative trading platforms in the cryptocurrency industry, integrating a range of next generation tools and features into its services and providing new ways of trading and investing for the cryptocurrency market.
5 Best Features of PrimeXBT:
Lowest Fees of Any Major Crypto Platform
Since its launch, PrimeXBT has provided the lowest trading fees on the market with a flat rate of just 0.05% applied to all trades, irrespective of the size of the trade or the asset class being traded.
While some of the major trading platforms provide lower fees than the average, PrimeXBT's fees are significantly lower than any other platforms and up to 10 times lower than the most expensive platforms to use.
This has ensured that PrimeXBT’s traders and investors are able to minimize the cost of trading by using the platform, and to maximize the revenue that they generate in the market.
Powerful and Reliable Platform
PrimeXBT is a powerful and reliable platform that packs a range of professionally-engineered tools and technologies into its systems, ensuring that traders can engage with the market in the most effective way possible.
Perhaps the best example of this is PrimeXBT’s trading engine which is strong and robust and that can execute up to 12,000 trades per second with an average trade time of less than 7.02 ms.
By providing a combination of ensuring high liquidity on all trading pairs as well as providing powerful trading tools, PrimeXBT ensures that there is minimum slippage on the platform and optimal entry and exit points as well.
Covesting For Reduced Risk and Crypto Copy Trading
PrimeXBT provides access to the only form of copy trading available in the cryptocurrency space following the integration of covesting into its systems in a partnership with leading crypto copy trading platform, Covesting.io.
Covesting allows traders and investors to partner together and to collectively maximize their safety in the market while reducing risk and improving the collective outcomes in the process.
Covesting is a revolutionary new way for cryptocurrency traders to engage with the market and is one of the fastest growing trends in 2020.
AML/KYC Compliance for Safe Trading
PrimeXBT uses Bitfury Crystal's AML compliance software and blockchain monitoring tool set on all incoming transactions to the platform in order to ensure full AML compliance and safety for all users on PrimeXBT.
PrimeXBT also restricts citizens from problematic jurisdictions with users confirming their country of residence in order for KYC compliance throughout the platform to be achieved.
Using this system, Primax PT not only ensures that it is fully AML/KYC compliant, but also that it is able to monitor and manage transactions that may be fraudulent in real-time throughout the platform.
Widest Range of Assets in the Market
One of the major draw cards of using PrimeXBT is that it provides one of the widest ranges of different assets in the market with a range of leading cryptoassets as well as some of the world's top traditional assets as well.
PrimeXBT lists a range of cryptocurrencies that include BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, and EOS, as well as a range of traditional assets like stock indices such as the S&P500 and FTSE100, forex pairs such as USD/EUR and AUD/CAD, and commodities such as gold and oil.
Traders and investors are able to use PrimeXBT as a bridge between the crypto assets and traditional asset markets, reducing the cost of trading between them, as well as dramatically increasing the efficiency of multi-asset trading in the process.
What is the Future of PrimeXBT?
In a very short amount of time of just 2 years, PrimeXBT has gone from launching with a waitlist of more than 150,000 traders to today managing up to $2 billion worth of global trade every day.
If the trajectory of growth for PrimeXBT continues it will no doubt see the platform expanding into a range of different areas of online financial trading, and will see the platform become one of the largest trading platforms to ever be in operation.
Over the past 2 years, PrimeXBT's reputation has only grown in strength and we would expect to see this continue as it integrates more safety and security features into its services and increases its compliance with AML and KYC globally.
In Conclusion
PrimeXBT has grown to become one of the world's leading crypto trading platforms, and provides access to some of the world's leading cryptoassets as well as many of the world's leading traditional assets as well.
PrimeXBT has provided a range of different advantages to its uses, with these essentially boiling down to powerful opportunities for more success in global markets as well as increased security and safety in comparison to other platforms.
If you would like to learn more about PrimeXBT, and about the tools and features available on the site, check out this link.
submitted by benebit to CryptocurrencyICO [link] [comments]

What is Extons?

EXTONS is a Cryptocurrency Exchange That Supports A Wide Variety Of Crypto Assets For Trading Activity. This Is Thisoption’s Five Ecosystems Slated To Launch For Traders All Around The Globe. Its A Centralized Cryptocurrency Exchange Which Is Part Of The Thisoption Ecosystem And Technology. It Supports Multiple Payment Systems With Fiat And Crypto Assets And Kyc Is Required To Use The Service Of This Platform. This Platform Is Founded In June 2020. Extons Is A Good Binary Market For Forex, Stocks And Good Crypto Trading, With Excellent Security For The Convenience Of Member Users, Extons Introduces Multi-currency Support. Continues To Introduce And Register Quality Digital Currencies Across The Country, Providing Users With Various Types Of Transaction Services And Most Digital Currencies. Extons Presentations Provide 24-hour Non-stop Online User Services To Ensure That Users Operate Smoothly With Transactions, Not Inferior To Other Large Markets.
👉 Business Model : Supports A Wide Range Of Crypto Assets Major Cryptocurrency Pair And Their Trading Activity Are Available In The Exchange. This Service Is Quite Big But Very Simple. Traders From All Around The Globe Will Be Able To Use This Platform And Be Part Of The Potential Growth Of This Ecosystem. Already Listed Major Crypto Assets And More Is One The Way.
👉 Multi-currencey Support: Quality Cryptocurrencies From All Around The Globe Are Constantly Introduced And Listed To Provide Users With Variety Transactions Services In Most Digital Assets.
👉 Best user Experience : The Exchange Interface Is Userfriendly And Smooth. It Is Important To Give The User The Best Trading Experience With The Markets. There Is Customer Support Online 24/7 For The Trader’s Assistance. This Will Ensure All The Transactions Will Pass Smoothly.
👉 Liquidity : Liquidity Is Also A Major Factor That Many Exchanges Failed To Achieve. Without Enough Liquidity, The Trader Will Not Be Able To Use This Platform With Ease. Liquidity Will Be Brought Over 250 Market Parameters With Advanced Technology And Infrastructure.
👉 Security : A Multi-model Structure Will Make The Most Important Thing Possible And That Is Its Security. With The Best Front End And Back End Designs With The Multi-model Design, A Stable Trading Operation Will Be Provided To The Customers. There Is Multiple Security Layers Have Been Taken To Prevent Any Hacking Activity And Market Manipulations.
👉 Conclusion : A Cryptocurrency Is An Enormous Place And One Of The Fastest-growing Financial Industries. There Are Over 300 Operating Exchange And Still, Most Of Them Provide Enough Liquidity To The Markets. Extons Can Be A Safe Place For Traders All Over The World. With Its Wide Range Of Services, It Can Attract Traders And Investors To Its Ecosystem.
👉 THISOPTION Ecosystem : Thisoption is a Product Of The Thisoption Limited On Trons Network. It Was Founded In 2016 With It’s Headquarter In 926 Adelaide Street, Toronto.
👉 Advantages Of THISOPTION : Diverse Trading Assetshigh Levels Of Securityquick Deposits And Withdrawalsmultiple Payment Gatewates24 Hours Supportavailability Of Copy Trading Tools.
👉 TONS Token : Tons is Used As A Payment Method In The Thisoption’s Ecosystem Issued By Thisoption Limited On The TRON Network. It Is A Trc-20 Token Type.
👉 TRC-20 : This is a Technical Standard Used For Smart Contracts On Ethereum Block Chain When Issuing Token.
submitted by MaynulHoqueMH to u/MaynulHoqueMH [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Broker Understand the Benefits of CryptoCurrency Trading

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, which can be spent, saved, or invested, and it can be stolen too. Trading with Bitcoins was considered to be risky, but the current trends show that it has become a big hit the binary options sector. This decentralized currency is not regulated by any Government, or by any central authority.
What determines the price of Bitcoins?
Bitcoin's price is determined according to the supply and demand ratio. Price increases when the demand increases, the rates plummet downwards when the demand falls. Bitcoins in circulation are limited, and new ones are created at a very slow rate. Since it does not have enough cash reserve to move the market price, its price can be extremely volatile.
Bitcoin trading is popular because of -
Binary options Bitcoin trading platform
bitcoin binary options are getting familiar with popularity of these Bitcoins, and its constant fluctuating values. Therefore they are using this opportunity to offer traders with the latest volatile crypto-currency as an additional payment method. Bitcoin brokers providing crypto-currency as trading option include -
Bitcoin brokers provide a simple trading online platform. All you have to do is visit their website, enter your details, and create an account. You can start with demo account to understand the market action.
The trading screen is simple.
Is Bitcoin trading secure?
Bitcoin network is possibly the world's vast spread computing project. The most common weakness here is the user errors. Bitcoin wallet files can get lost, stolen, or deleted accidentally just like any other files in the digital form.
However, users can use sound security strategies to protect their cash. Alternatively, you could choose the service providers who offer high-level security, as well as insurance against loss or theft.
We provide latest information on Bitcoin brokers and online trading platforms on our website. Please visit our website to check out the broker reviews in order to make the right choices.
submitted by amirkhoso to u/amirkhoso [link] [comments]

How Does PrimeXBT Help Traders Generate Profits In Ways That Other Platforms Don’t?

How Does PrimeXBT Help Traders Generate Profits In Ways That Other Platforms Don’t?

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PrimeXBT is one of the true success stories of the cryptocurrency industry, having launched only 3 years ago and today growing to become the largest multi-asset margin trading platform on the market.
The exponential growth of PrimeXBT to the point it’s at today has been largely as a result of providing opportunities to generate profit which other trading platforms have not.
Let’s take a look at the innovative ways that PrimeXBT has provided advanced tools and features for its users, and the impact it’s had on its growth in the market.
What’s Different About 2020?
For much of the last 10 years of the life of cryptocurrency, trading platforms have faced limited competition and could largely dominate the market without much innovation being built into their systems.
Throughout 2016 and 2017 there was a huge growth in the number of traders in the market, and this had a knock-on effect where the additional trading revenue that was available led to a huge influx of new trading platforms establishing themselves as well.
This influx of competition has meant that only trading platforms that innovate are able to compete and secure a substantial amount of market share in the cryptocurrency space.
PrimeXBT - The World’s Leading Multi-Asset Margin Trading Platform
PrimeXBT has incorporated innovation into the fabric of its trading platform, with it being the first major cryptocurrency trading platform to focus solely on margin trading in the crypto space, and this in turn leading to a strong demand for its services.
Over a relatively short period of time of 2 or 3 years, PrimeXBT has continually grown at an exponential rate as it has integrated more services providing greater value for traders.
Today PrimeXBT has become the world's leading multi-asset margin trading platform, listing a wide range of cryptocurrencies and traditional assets and managing up to $2billion worth of global trade every day.
Wider Variety of Assets to Choose From
Unlike other platforms which focus only on cryptocurrencies, PrimeXBT lists a wide range of cryptoassets including BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, and EOS, as well as a wide range of traditional assets like stock indices such as S&P500 and FTSE100, commodities such as gold and oil, and forex pairs such as USD/EUR and AUD/CAD.
Coupled with this has been PrimeXBT’s continual push to integrate new assets into its platform and over the course of the last few years has increased number of listed assets by more than 50%
One of the most attractive reasons that traders have traded at PrimeXBT is the ability to use it as an efficient and seamless bridge between cryptocurrency space and the traditional asset market.
Industry-Leading Margin Trading and high Leverage
At its core, PrimeXBT is a margin-trading-centric platform that recognized the demand for advanced margin trading for features within the cryptocurrency market and built its services around that.
Traders at PrimeXBT enjoy industry-leading leverage of up to 100X on a range of cryptocurrencies and up to 500X on a range of traditional assets, with this being significantly higher than in any other major platform in the market today.
At a point in time when almost no other major cryptocurrency trading platforms provided margin trading, PrimeXBT was the first platform to build it into its systems in any kind of significant way, and as such has built a large and loyal following throughout the market.
Secure Trading for Users
PrimeXBT has also always focused on providing a secure environment for traders, with the platform having a better security track record than a majority of others in the industry.
PrimeXBT incorporates a wide range of bank-grade security features into its services such as mandatory Bitcoin address whitelisting and cold storage of digital assets with multisignature technology.
This has ensured that PrimeXBT has never been hacked and has not been breached by hackers, with the funds of its users remaining safe throughout this time of operation.
In Summary
PrimeXBT provides a unique trading environment for its users, with a wide range of different features and unique and powerful ways to generate profit in the cryptocurrency market.
The innovation that has been built into PrimeXBT has been one of its major draw cards and it’s unique selling point for the past 2 or 3 years.
To learn more about PrimeXBT and the tools and features available on the platform, check out this link.
submitted by benebit to CryptocurrencyICO [link] [comments]

How does the BitQT App work?

How does the BitQT App work?

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In the later part of websites are the testimonials screaming out loud regarding their success.BitQT review can be quiet judgemental at this point as a result of neither these testimonials prove the legitimacy of the web site nor the live profit reviews account such
You extremely want to understand that if you opt to speculate you’ll surely not visiting recover. TheBitQT just prove this by themselves stating it not being on affiliate terms with others. Something that’s claiming that you simply’ll earn 110zero greenbacks every day is doing a true-time scam job
Perhaps, theBitQT states advertising itself on Times, CNN and Forbes however neither of them found supportive during this regard. You'll check it all by yourself. This is often the sound proof of its scamming regime throughout the globe
It doesn’t have that laser-accurate performance as in trading bitcoin you can never guarantee the minimum amount of profit you be earning the other day. Its what happens when trading with Forex

Many of the websites agree onto the proficiency ofBitQT negating the crucial and impactful proves I shared with you higher than. They are saying it’s flawless. Will something be this flawless letting you earn regarding one thousand bucks each day without charging a penny? The automated transactions are known to be deposited directly into the user’s account that is nowhere to find affiliation with. Undoubtedly, most of the revealing sites have the only supportive argument beginning with, ‘As the review suggests’. Do raise yourselves, is that this the legitimate way to prove legitimacy ofBitQT
They too argue regarding the legitimate verification method. That’s the explanation why there’s a number of complaints with reference to the current. If these products would have really worked, why not each single person select to remain off from their offices integrating with it somehow:

Merely head to the SIGN-UP section on theBitQT site, fill in your personal info, and present your registration. When acknowledged, you'll be able to be able to access our restrictive Bitcoin exchanging

To induce your exchange account in progress, you’ll have to include some assets. WithBitQT, you can create a initial investment of as low as $250, although you'll be able to contribute as a lot of as you wantoy
Since your enlistment has been acknowledged and you’ve invested some funds, you’re fully done. Simply click on ‘trade’ to receive the rewards ofBitQT’s highly rated algorithm. In case you need a hands-on approach, you can shift to manual operation by changing the settings

There’s no harm in trading in terms of cryptocurrency. We have a tendency to’re not against it. But we tend to really aim to reveal the very fact thatBitQT isn't a legitimate website to believe during this case. To actually invest in bitcoin you initially want to shop for a bitcoin wallet so as to store all bitcoins. a series of blockchain integrations which permits you to top-up and earn.

But, as stated earlier you’ve no actual guarantee concerning the number you wish to earn. Secondly, you wish to integrate your bitcoin wallet to your account and then you’ll be ready to head towards the foremost step. Here, you’ll jin a bitcoin exchange system for trading bitcoin for any different traditional currencies of the market.

It works well solely if you for legitimate sites for functioning and planning. Perhaps, it too needs a nice amount of ability and we never promise you to begin earning when you join Bitcoin Exchanger somehow. This was all aboutBitQT Review as a full fulling the aim of alerting the scam going around.


Money Forex Cluster scamThe Cash Forex Group is run by a company named CFxG which allegedly was founded by a team of experts in all kinds of areas, mainly education in the monetary trading field and network promoting.

https://preview.redd.it/0gc7ga9f1pm51.jpg?width=474&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5c031ac047e635c47d3ee592ab9235878613c890
These experts and their automated trading system will supposedly facilitate your to form heaps of cash. In trading solely you'll allegedly make fifteenp.c weekly on your investments. Then there are referral programs and multi-level structures that can boost your income even more. Is that t
Money FX Group scamLet’s begin this Money Forex Group review by stating the obvious, this scheme may be a total scam, you just have to look at the numbers.BitQT

When they promise you fifteen%+ weekly, it means that 60percent+ monthly, which is totally ridiculous in the important world. It means a lot of than 560zeropercent per year, therefore you'd need solely $18,00zero greenbacks to become a millionaire within year. And this is often plain impossible.

No legitimate business can create you a gradual fifteenpercent weekly, no financial markets are that predictable and that easy to trade. It may appear straightforward to you, but it really is this straightforward, a program promising fifteenp.c weekly should be a scam, there is no alternative method, the Money FX Group is a scam.

However there is additional to go through in this review.
Massive lies

Money FX Cluster testimonialThe Money Forex Cluster claims to be regulated by the subsequent institutions: FAC – Financial Conduct Authority of London, DFSA – Monetary Services Authority in Dubai, FSCA – Monetary Sector Conduct Authority of South Africa and FSA – the Monetary Services Authority of Seychelles.

But guess what, the FAC will not even exist, while the others (DFSA, FSCA and FSA) haven't issued any license whatsoever to Cash Forex Cluster. Therefore not only Money FX Group is not regulated at all, it conjointly is lying huge time regarding its regulatory status.

The fact is that it's no license whatsoever, so it cannot supply investment services legally in most countries.

This is often conjointly why they want you to deposit cryptocurrencies, they wish to remain as anonymous as potential, so that they will run away along with your cash.
Regulatory warning

Not long when we have a tendency to printed our analysis, the Financial Conduct Authority (financial regulator in Nice Britain) came up with its own warning.

The regulator said that CashFX is providing investment services without the mandatory authorization and advised the public to remain off from it. This is often a very serious argumentBiTQT.

It'd be terribly unwise to deposit money with an unregulated and basically anonymous entity, as a result of it would not be protected in any means. No matter where the cash finally ends up, this program is promising you impossible returns on investments, which in itself confirms that something is wrong.
How it works

Let’s end this Cash Forex Group review by explaining the essential principle of this investment program. It's a Ponzi theme that does no real economic activity. It just collects money from individuals and may pay out some profits, but the most recent clients’ deposits can be used for that.

This will have an inevitable outcome, the system can sooner or later crumble. It's simply a matter of your time when there can be not enough deposits to hide withdrawals and also the inevitable end can

Nobody has not been paid, that is NOBODY ….. after all you can't compound or upgrade your CFX account unless you withdraw (get paid) …. CFX are not regulated…. as a result of they use a Regulated broker (everfx) to trade…so that information is also incorrect…and judging by the actual members comments….I’d say, members are happy….. long might that continue. BUT, you must never place in more than you are prepared to lose (In SOMETHING). However do correct analysis, ask

members, don’t rely on people that play safe and stay poor. Do your own due diligence. (ps MOST sites that decision each business out as a scam…have their own links…..promoting guess what ? ….tip. SCAMS ! Beware.

https://www.cryptoerapro.com/bitqt/


http://www.cryptoerapro.com/

https://twitter.com/cryptoerapro

https://www.instagram.com/cryptoerapro/

https://www.pinterest.co.uk/cryptoerapro/

https://www.facebook.com/cryptoerapro
submitted by bitqtadvantage to u/bitqtadvantage [link] [comments]

When will we bottom out?

PART 2 : https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/g0sd44/what_is_the_bottom/
PART 3: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/g2enz2/why_the_printer_must_continue/
Edit: By popular demand, the too long didn't read is now at the top
TL;DR
SPY 220p 11/20
This will likely be a multi-part series. It should be noted that I am no expert by any means, I'm actually quite new to this, it is just an elementary analysis of patterns in price and time. I am not a financial advisor, and this is not advice for a person to enter trades upon.
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this DD, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. We will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The market is technically open 24-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy.
Some important terms to keep in mind:
§ Discrete – terminal points at the extremes of ranges
§ Secondary Discrete – quantified retracement or correction between two discrete
§ Longs (asset appreciation) and shorts (asset depreciation)
- Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
§ Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes because of levels of fear. Allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 23rd of March, we can safely determine that a low WAS NOT reached.
§ VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend is imminent.
– Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw an uptrend line on the SPY chart, but it is possible to correctly draw a downtrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards.
Now that we have determined that the overall trend is downwards, the next issue is the question of when SPY will bottom out.
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will complete our analysis of time by measuring it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Yearly Lows: 12/31/2000, 9/21/2001, 10/9/2002, 3/11/2003, 8/2/2004, 4/15/2005, 6/12/2006, 3/5/2007, 11/17/2008, 3/9/2009, 7/2/10, 10/3/11, 1/1/12, 1/1/13, 2/3/14, 9/28/15, 2/8/16, 1/3/17, 12/24/18, 6/3/19
Months: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9, 10, 10, 11, 12, 12
Days: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 5, 8, 9, 9, 11, 12, 15, 17, 21, 24, 28, 31
Monthly Lows: 3/23, 2/28, 1/27, 12/3, 11/1, 10/2, 9/3, 8/5, 7/1, 6/3, 5/31, 4/1
Days: 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 5, 23, 27, 27, 31
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points*.*
We see that SPY tends to have its lows between three major month clusters: 1-4, primarily March (which has actually occurred already this year), 6-9, averaged out to July, and 10-12, averaged out to November. Following the same methodology, we get the third and tenth days of the month as the likeliest days. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the end of the month has replaced the average of the tenth. Therefore, we have four primary dates for our histogram.
7/3/20, 7/27/20, and 11/3/20, 11/27/20 .
How do we narrow this group down with any accuracy? Let us average the days together to work with two dates - 7/15/20 and 11/15/20.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model – states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is April 14th of 2022. However, we can time-shift to other peaks and troughs to determine a date for this year. If we consider 1/28/2018 as a localized high and apply this model, we get 3/23/20 as a low - strikingly accurate. I have chosen the next localized high, 9/21/2018 to apply the model to. We achieve a date of 11/14/2020.
The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of the bear market - roughly speaking.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
As we move forward in time, our predictions may be less accurate. It is important to keep in mind that this analysis will likely change and become more accurate as we factor in Terry Laundry’s T-Theory, the Bradley Cycle, a more sophisticated analysis of Bull and Bear Market Cycles, the Fundamental Investor Cyclic Approach, and Seasons and Half-Seasons.
I have also assumed that the audience believes in these models, which is not necessary. Anyone with free time may construct histograms and view these time models, determining for themselves what is accurate and what is not. Take a look at 1/28/2008, that localized high, and 2.15 years (1/4th of the sinusoidal wave of the model) later.
The question now is, what prices will SPY reach on 11/14? Where will we be at 7/28? What will happen on 4/14/22?
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Statistical Edge Trading

Statistical Edge Trading

Statistical Edge Trading

Have you ever traded with statistical edge? Our Allen trade talks about backing up the trading network and leveraging it from excellent newspapering. This is a stage that is undermined by many traders but fairly, it can be a crucial factor in boosting your trust and believing in your system. For those interested in this sort of research, you can check out the FTMO Statistical Application.
Trading with a Statistical edge
Although many traders back-test and record their trades to verify the trading system 's feasibility, monitoring and using the data to maximize both your stop loss and profit goal is a tremendous advantage. Two of the most critical pieces of data that I record when reporting trades is the drawdown and the benefit potential.

The drawdown, to be sure, is how far a trade goes against my place before it goes in my favour.

Whereas the benefit potential is the maximum distance from my entry which the trade moves in my favor. It isn't important and it's uncommon, in general, that I actually exit the trade. Yet definitely coming out at or as close as can be.
Firstly, I record my trades in two ways, using screenshots of the charts themselves where I annotate my entry, date, type of trade and all other relevant details related to my methodology, such as strength and weakness analysis , multiple time frame analysis and correlation. I also note on the map the drawdown and benefit potential of the trade.

Then I go through my Excel spreadsheet with main details. See "excel" below.

Excel spreadsheet with main details.

This includes the date, day, session, pair, time, route, entry price, closing price, type of setup, type of entry, type of exit, drawdown, potential for benefit and outcome. I then let excel do all the heavy lifting for myself as I can sort my trades numerous ways, by day, by session, by pair, by route, by type of set-up etc.

But where the really cool stuff is under the "Mind-blowing stats" tab where I have some of the above filterable statistics that will help me to optimize both my stop loss and my benefit goal.

Here is a summary of the specification.

When you use a risk percentage account to calculate your position size (as you should), so the lower the pause, the larger a position size you will trade in. The stop must, therefore, have a high likelihood of remaining. The vast majority of trading books, guides, videos, etc., advise that after a recent high / low swing, the stop will be many pips.

But my trade documents helped me to come up with a statistical advantage for my stoppage placement.

As can be seen in the "Drawdown" tag, Trading my Type 1 BO (breakout out) on GBPAUD, 79.55 percent of the time my drawdown was less than 25 pips, although it was just 81.82 percent at 30 pips and 84.09 percent at 35 pips.

Statistical Edge Trading
So when using a larger pause, an extra loss or 2, the advantage of having a greater size of the place and thereby netting more money makes the extra loss(s) inconsequential.

Furthermore, the income goal can also be optimized.

Looking at the "Profit Potential" connection and remaining on GBPAUD again for my Type 1 BO trades, we can easily see that almost 80 percent of the time, those trades get between 20 and 30 pips.

Statistical Edge Trading (b)
It is a perfect place to take off 1/2 of the spot and push the stop to flat. So we can let the rest of the half run to about 50 pips where 59.09 percent of the trades touch.

Obviously market conditions aren't always the same, so if you can recognise when they are, i.e. linked moves or strengthening or weakening other classes (commodity pairs or safe haven pairs), then you can make educated decisions about how far a trade will go.

Statistical Edge Trading (meme)

I hope this information 's helpful to you.

Eva " Forex " Canares .
Cheers and Profitable Trading to All.

About FTMO -
They fund forex traders. Just Pass their risk management rules and begin trading for their company. They'll provide you capital up to $300k USD for trading the financial markets. 70% of profits you keep and losses are covered by them. How does it work?
How to Become a Funded Forex ,Stocks or CryptoCurrency Trader?
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With Bitcoin Suddenly Surging, Canaan Stock Is Also Going Up Today

With Bitcoin Suddenly Surging, Canaan Stock Is Also Going Up Today



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You'll be able to trade with us by depositing just $250. The additional you deposit, the more earning potential you have in a very single day. However, we have a tendency to encourage our users to begi
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Do celebrities recommend the Bitcoin trader software?

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Our platforms are encrypted to shield you from hackers. Furthermore, we tend to also adhere to information privacy measures, like the General Information Protection Regulation (GDPR). Try out Bitcoin Trader currently through the link at the high right corner of this page.
perior over different cryptocurrencies?
LATESTBITCOINETHEREUMALTCOINSTECHNOLOGYADOPTIONBLOCKCHAINEVENTSCONTACT
PRESS RELEASEWhy is Bitcoin superior over different cryptocurrencies?Akshay KSPublished a pair of weeks agoon August 12, 2020By Akshay KS
Source: Pixabay
During this technical world, bitcoin is the foremost used digital currency all over the world. However the main question then arises within the minds of the many folks is why bitcoin is considered the foremost superior over other cryptocurrenc Bitcoin Freedom
Bitcoin is that the one method of creating transactions daily as alternative currencies. But it's its options and uniqueness that make it superior. Bitcoin and different currencies are based mostly on the cryptographic algorithms or mathematics that are encrypted, with that the user becomes the owner of the currency. Bitcoin currencies are easily accessible at Bitcoin ATM and online exchange
The main feature of the bitcoin, which makes it superior is that it is the safest option for digital transactions. These will be used for on-line searching and transfer of money too.
There are many alternative blessings to using bitcoin. A number of them are mentioned below
Decentralized and digital
Bitcoin offers the freedom of exchanging the price without representatives that proves helpful in controlling the lower fees and high funds. Bitcoin is that the faster method of transaction than others. It is secure as it is free from theft and frauds and is constant. The main advantage is that bitcoin has its homeowners whereas the bank controls the money.
Makes online looking
Normally, bitcoin will be used for on-line shopping too. Bitcoin is the opposite face of e-wallet, that is created by blockchain technology that is used to store money and will easily pay everywhere digitally. For this reason, it also makes your searching easy by which you'll be able to look from your home solely

Bitcoin is accepted globally at each corner of the planet, which makes it less volatile than local currencies or cash. This feature makes it superior because it enables us to form transactions on-line and across the boundaries
Bitcoin unable the means of tracking cash

https://preview.redd.it/4vpws3gtz9j51.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=179af0fcc33f85322d48b6be65fce2e4442c6cd6
Bitcoin is created by blockchain technology. Blockchain is the sole technology which will either make it or break it. There are many computers which are used to keep up a permanent record of each bitcoin transactions with the help of cryptographic technique. In this approach, it becomes a lot of valuable together with the tracking of the payment. At the same time, there's no method of tracking the cash

While not any transformation method, it will be used over the entire world. It provides the simplest platform for the investment as it is free from the restrictions of governments or banks. It provides an open market and combines the simplest of gold and money.

Bitcoin provides the power to access the balance of the users with a password which is named a personal key. It additionally permits the exchange of values through the web without any middle person. Thus, bitcoin becomes safer, stuffed with privacy, and open to everyone
Unlike cash, it is not possible to form the duplicate quite bitcoin that makes it more efficient. It's protected with the technology of blockchain. Even if anyone tries to form a replica of bitcoin to use it, then the system will automatically reject it as the system recognize it as unknown

Bitcoin Freedom failed to allow two persons to transact on the one price. Once the bitcoin is transferred, its possession is also transferred. So this is the simple approach of maintaining records for any tax functions. It conjointly makes it a easy and healthier metho

Bitcoin is the foremost reliable manner of online transactions. Many questions arise in folks’s minds that are solved on websites like bitcoin revolution. One in all them was the above-mentioned question. Bitcoin provides many facilities, and it comes with more and a lot of blessings which makes it distinctive and special over different cryptocurrencies. It can be preferred as the simplest digital platform for transac


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Disclaimer: AMBCrypto US and UK Market's content is informational in nature and is not meant to be investment advice. Buying, trading or selling crypto-currencies ought to be considered a high-risk investment and every reader is advised to do their due diligence before making any decisions.
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The Bitcoin Trader app has won nearly fifteen coveted awards since launching in 2016. These include the most Profitable Robot 2020 award by the American Trading Association, the simplest Robot in Trading Technologies 2019 award, and the most Profitable Crypto Robot in 2018 Award. We have a tendency to price our customers and are contin
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Since I angered some Chads on /r/investing here's why I think China is the next "big short".

Fellow idiots,
I posted this comment which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse.
TL;DR at the bottom.
Point 1: Defaults in China have been accelerating aggressively, and through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50% over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too.
Point 2: The RMB has depreciated significantly. Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.. This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them.
Point 3: Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the middle income trap. Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we normally associated with being developing/emerging markets. Tangentially related to point 10.
Point 4: China is an export-dependent economy, with about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP. Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? Chinese exports dropped 1% in August, and August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth..
Point 5: Business confidence has been weak in China - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point.
Point 6: Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 percentage points since 2010. While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment.
Point 7: They are an extremely levered economy with a total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%, per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of global total fucking debt. Here's an interview with someone else talking about it too.
Point 8: Their central bank recently introduced a metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy. This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point.
Point 9: Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to this joint statement, around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now?
Point 10: Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade. Investors want safety, and safe-haven denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment.
Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid.
TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /investing.
Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind:
*not investment advice*
submitted by ComicalEconomical to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Thoughts On The Market Series #1 - The New Normal?

Market Outlook: What to Make of This “New Normal”

By ****\*
March 16, 2020
After an incredibly volatile week – which finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying over 9% on Friday – I suppose my readers might expect me to be quite upbeat about the markets.
Unfortunately, I persist in my overall pessimistic outlook for stocks, and for the economy in general. Friday’s rally essentially negated Thursday’s sell-off, but I don’t expect it to be the start of a sustained turnaround.
We’re getting a taste of that this morning, with the Dow opening down around 7%.
This selloff is coming on the back of an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of 100 basis points (to 0%-0.25%) on Sunday… along with the announcement of a new quantitative easing program of $700 billion. (I will write about this further over the next several days.)
As I have been writing for many weeks, the financial bubble – which the Fed created by pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system – has popped. It will take some time for the bubble to deflate to sustainable levels.
Today I’ll walk you through what’s going on in the markets and the economy… what I expect going forward and why… and what it means for us as traders. (You’ll see it’s not all bad news.)

Coronavirus’ Strain on the Global Economy

To start, let’s put things in perspective: This asset deflation was coming one way or another. Covid19 (or coronavirus) has simply accelerated the process.
Major retailers are closing, tourism is getting crushed, universities and schools are sending students home, conventions, sporting events, concerts, and other public gatherings have been cancelled, banks and other financial service firms are going largely virtual, and there has been a massive loss of wealth.
Restaurant data suggests that consumer demand is dropping sharply, and the global travel bans will only worsen the situation.
Commercial real estate is another sector that looks particularly vulnerable. We are almost certain to see a very sharp and pronounced economic slowdown here in the United States, and elsewhere. In fact, I expect a drop of at least 5% of GDP over the next two quarters, which is quite severe by any standard.
Sure, when this cycle is complete, there will be tremendous amounts of pent-up demand by consumers, but for the time being, the consumer is largely on the sidelines.
Of course, the problems aren’t just in the U.S. China’s numbers look awful. In fact, the government there may have to “massage” their numbers a bit to show a positive GDP in the first quarter. Europe’s numbers will also look dreadful, and South Korea’s economy has been hit badly.
All around the world, borders are being shut, all non-essential businesses are being closed, and people in multiple countries are facing a lockdown of historic proportions. The coronavirus is certainly having a powerful impact, and it looks certain that its impact will persist for a while.
Consider global tourism. It added almost $9 trillion to the global economy in 2018, and roughly 320 million jobs. This market is in serious trouble.
Fracking in the U.S. is another business sector that is in a desperate situation. Millions of jobs and tens of billions of loans are now in jeopardy.
The derivative businesses that this sector supports will be likewise devastated as companies are forced to reduce their workforces or shut down due to the collapse in oil prices. This sector’s suffering will probably force banks to book some big losses despite attempts by the government to support this industry.
In a similar way, the derivative businesses that are supported by the universities and colleges across America are going to really suffer.
There are nearly 20 million students in colleges across the U.S. When they go home for spring vacation and do not return, the effect on the local businesses that colleges and university populations support will be devastating.
What does this “new normal” mean going forward? Let’s take a look…

New Normal

The new normal may become increasingly unpleasant for us. We need to be ready to hunker down for quite some time.
Beyond that, the government needs to handle this crisis far better in the future.
The level of stupidity associated with the massive throngs of people trapped in major airports yesterday, for example, was almost unimaginable.
Instead of facilitating the reduction of social contact and halting the further spread of the coronavirus, the management of the crowds at the airports produced a perfect breeding ground for the spread of the virus.
My guess is that more draconian travel restrictions will be implemented soon, matching to some extent the measures taken across Europe.
This will in turn have a further dampening effect on economic activity in the U.S., putting more and more pressure on the Fed and the government to artificially support a rapidly weakening economy.
Where does this end up? It is too early to say, but a very safe bet is that we will have some months of sharply negative growth. Too many sectors of the economy are going to take a hit to expect anything else.
The Fed has already driven interest rates to zero. Will that help? Unlikely. In fact, as I mentioned at the beginning of this update, the markets are voting with a resounding NO.
The businesses that are most affected by the current economic situation will still suffer. Quantitative easing is hardly a cure-all. In fact, it has been one of the reasons that we have such a mess in our markets today.
The markets have become addicted to the easy money, so more of the same will have little or no impact. We will need real economic demand, not an easier monetary policy.
It won’t help support tourism, for example, or the other sectors getting smashed right now. The government will need to spend at least 5% of GDP, or roughly $1 trillion, to offset the weakness I see coming.
Is it surprising that the Fed and the government take emergency steps to try to stabilize economic growth? Not at all. This is essentially what they have been doing for a long time, so it is completely consistent with their playbook.
Next, I would anticipate the government implementing some massive public-works and infrastructure programs over the coming months. That would be very helpful, and almost certainly quite necessary.
But there’s a problem with this kind of intervention from the government…

What Happens When You Eliminate the Business Cycle

The Fed’s foolish attempt to eliminate business cycles is a significant contributing factor to the volatility we are currently experiencing.
Quantitative easing is nothing more than printing lots and lots of money to support a weak economy and give the appearance of growth and prosperity. In fact, it is a devaluation of the currency’s true buying power.
That in turn artificially drives up the prices of other assets, such as stocks, real estate and gold – but it does not create true wealth. That only comes with non-inflationary growth of goods and services and associated increases in economic output.
Inflation is the government’s way to keep people thinking they are doing better.
To that point: We have seen some traditional safe-haven assets getting destroyed during this time of risk aversion. That has certainly compounded the problems of many investors.
Gold is a great example. As the stock market got violently slammed, people were forced to come up with cash to support their losing positions. Gold became a short-term source of liquidity as people sold their gold holdings in somewhat dramatic fashion. It was one of the few holdings of many people that was not dramatically under water, so people sold it.
The move may have seemed perverse, particularly to people who bought gold as a safe-haven asset, but in times of crisis, all assets tend to become highly correlated, at least short term.
We saw a similar thing happen with long yen exposures and long Bitcoin exposures recently.
The dollar had its strongest one-day rally against the yen since November 2016 as people were forced to sell huge amounts of yen to generate liquidity. Many speculators had made some nice profits recently as the dollar dropped sharply from 112 to 101.30, but they have been forced to book whatever profits they had in this position. Again, this was due to massive losses elsewhere in their portfolios.
Is the yen’s sell-off complete? If it is not complete, it is probably at least close to an attractive level for Japanese investors to start buying yen against a basket of currencies. The major supplies of yen have largely been taken off the table for now.
For example, the yen had been a popular funding currency for “carry” plays. People were selling yen and buying higher-yielding currencies to earn the interest rate difference between the liability currency (yen) and the funding currency (for example, the U.S. dollar).
Carry plays are very unpopular in times of great uncertainty and volatility, however, so that supply of yen will be largely gone for quite some time. Plus, the yield advantage of currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar versus the yen is nearly gone.
In addition, at the end of the Japanese fiscal year , there is usually heavy demand for yen as Japanese corporations need to bring home a portion of their overseas holdings for balance sheet window dressing. I don’t expect that pressure to be different this year.
Just as the safe-haven assets of yen and gold got aggressively sold, Bitcoin also got hammered. It was driven by a similar theme – people had big losses and they needed to produce liquidity quickly. Selling Bitcoin became one of the sources of that liquidity.

Heavy Price Deflation Ahead

Overall, there is a chance that this scenario turns into something truly ugly, with sustained price deflation across many parts of the economy. We will certainly have price deflation in many sectors, at least on a temporary basis.
Why does that matter over the long term?
Price deflation is the most debilitating economic development in a society that is debt-laden – like the U.S. today. Prices of assets come down… and the debt becomes progressively bigger and bigger.
The balance sheet of oil company Chesapeake Energy is a classic example. It’s carrying almost $10 billion worth of debt… versus a market cap of only about $600 million. Talk about leverage! When the company had a market cap of $10 billion, that debt level didn’t appear so terrifying.
Although this is an extreme example for illustrative purposes, the massive debt loads of China would seem more and more frightening if we were to sink into flat or negative growth cycles for a while. The government’s resources are already being strained, and it can artificially support only so many failing companies.
The U.S. has gigantic levels of debt as well, but it has the advantage of being the world’s true hegemon, and the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. This creates a tremendous amount of leverage and power in financing its debt.
The U.S. has been able to impose its will on its trading partners to trade major commodities in dollars. This has created a constant demand for the dollar that offsets, to a large extent, the massive trade deficit that the U.S. runs.
For example, if a German company wants to buy oil, then it needs to hold dollars. This creates a constant demand for dollar assets.
In short, the dollar’s status as the true global reserve currency is far more important than most people realize. China does not hold this advantage.

What to Do Now

In terms of how to position ourselves going forward, I strongly recommend that people continue with a defensive attitude regarding stocks. There could be a lot more downside to come. Likewise, we could see some panic selling in other asset classes.
The best thing right now is to be liquid and patient, ready to pounce on special opportunities when they present themselves.
For sure, there will be some exceptional opportunities, but it is too early to commit ourselves to just one industry. These opportunities could come in diverse sectors such as commercial real estate, hospitality, travel and leisure, and others.
As for the forex markets, the volatility in the currencies is extreme, so we are a bit cautious.
I still like the yen as a safe-haven asset. I likewise still want to sell the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar as liability currencies.
Why? The Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have all taken aggressive steps recently, slashing interest rates. These currencies are all weak, and they will get weaker.
Finding an ideal entry for a trade, however, is tricky. Therefore, we are being extra careful with our trading. We always prioritize the preservation of capital over generating profits, and we will continue with this premise.
At the same time, volatility in the markets is fantastic for traders. We expect many excellent opportunities to present themselves over the coming days and weeks as prices get driven to extreme levels and mispricings appear. So stay tuned.
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

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